The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) warns that the region will maintain moderate growth, projecting 2.2% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026—slightly higher than April’s estimates, thanks to a better first quarter. However, high global uncertainty could further weaken these forecasts.
Key Findings from the 2025 ECLAC Report
- South America: Growth of 2.7% in 2025, driven by Argentina, Ecuador, Colombia, and Paraguay, but slowing to 2.4% in 2026.
- Central America and Mexico: Just 1.0% in 2025 due to lower external demand, with Guatemala, Panama, and the Dominican Republic exceeding 3.5%.
- Caribbean: 1.8% in 2025 due to weaker tourism and high energy costs. Guyana remains in double-digit growth thanks to hydrocarbons.
The region faces weak domestic demand, unfavorable external conditions, and vulnerability to shocks such as commodity price swings or geopolitical tensions. Job creation will be modest, and inflation is expected to remain stable, though risks persist.
Business Impact
Limited GDP growth will constrain domestic and external demand, affecting sales and exports. Companies must adapt to tight financing conditions and greater volatility. Slower employment growth and policies to promote formalization will bring stricter labor oversight. At the same time, governments are likely to increase tax collection efforts, requiring flawless compliance.
Recommendations for Companies
- Accounting planning: Adjust budgets conservatively, focusing on efficiency and liquidity.
- Tax compliance: Strengthen controls in anticipation of stricter rules and audits.
- Payroll management: Optimize workforce structure, prioritizing productivity and legal compliance.
- Transfer pricing: Update studies and documentation to ensure compliance and avoid contingencies.
Companies that combine strategic planning with strict compliance will be better positioned to face a 2025 marked by low growth and high uncertainty, safeguarding profitability while seizing opportunities in more dynamic markets.
Read the report here.