Latin American Trade in 2025: Opportunities and Risks

The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) has released its latest International Trade Outlook for Latin America and the Caribbean 2025, a comprehensive assessment of the region’s current trade dynamics and the challenges arising from a global environment shaped by geopolitical tensions, slower growth, and a shifting U.S. tariff agenda. For companies and investors operating in the region—including Englobally’s clients—the report offers essential guidance for strategic decision-making.
(Source: ECLAC)

According to ECLAC, the region’s merchandise exports are expected to grow by around 5% in 2025, similar to their performance in 2024. This increase is driven mainly by higher export volumes, with international prices rising modestly. Imports would grow slightly faster, with a projected 6% increase.

Services continue to play an increasingly important role: exports of services are expected to expand by about 8% in 2025, still outpacing the growth of goods, even if at a slightly slower rate than in 2024.

The report confirms that most export momentum will come from markets outside the region. Shipments to China are expected to grow about 7%, boosted by demand for food products and strategic minerals such as copper. Exports to the United States and the European Union would also expand, by roughly 5% and 6%, respectively.

However, intraregional trade remains the weak spot. It is projected to grow by only 1%, meaning the share of trade occurring within Latin America continues to shrink. This declining regional integration, in an uncertain global context, is one of the most pressing challenges highlighted by ECLAC.

One of the report’s central themes is the impact of the recent shift in U.S. tariff measures. ECLAC notes that Latin American countries currently face effective tariffs of around 10% in the U.S. market — roughly 7 percentage points lower than the average effective tariff faced by the rest of the world. This creates opportunities for the region to gain competitiveness in sectors such as apparel, agro-industrial goods, and medical devices, where Asian suppliers may now encounter higher barriers.

But the outlook is not uniformly positive. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy has already affected foreign direct investment flows. In the first half of 2025, announced FDI projects in Latin America fell by more than 50% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching levels far below the historical average of the past decade. For policymakers and companies operating in global value chains, this sharp decline is a clear warning sign.

ECLAC underscores the urgency of accelerating the region’s transition toward higher-value, more technologically intensive exports. Latin America’s share in global high-tech exports remains below 5%, and its participation in modern, digitally delivered services is still under 2%.

This gap is significant. A shift toward more sophisticated export baskets — ranging from digital services to advanced manufacturing — is essential not only for stronger economic growth but also for improving productivity and generating more skilled employment. Mexico, with its technologically oriented manufacturing industry, and Brazil, the regional leader in modern services, stand out. Yet most countries continue to rely on export structures that are far from diversified.

ECLAC outlines a two-pronged strategy for the region.

First, Latin America should deepen regional integration while strengthening ties with high-potential markets, including China, India, Southeast Asia, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and Africa. Better logistics, modernized infrastructure, and regulatory harmonization will be critical to improving regional competitiveness.

Second, the region needs stronger institutions capable of designing and implementing long-term industrial and productive development policies. Moving into more advanced goods and services requires not only investment and technology, but also public institutions with strategic vision, technical capacity, and continuity.

For companies seeking growth in the region—and for those supported by Englobally in areas such as tax compliance, payroll management, cross-border operations, and corporate setup—the message is clear: the global trade landscape is shifting rapidly, bringing both risks and opportunities.

Latin America retains tariff advantages in the U.S., demand from Asia continues to expand, and services exports are gaining relevance. Yet declining FDI, low intraregional integration, and limited technological sophistication require investors, exporters, and consultants to operate with greater strategic foresight.

In this changing environment, specialized advisory services — precisely the expertise Englobally offers throughout Latin America — become essential to help companies navigate regulatory, fiscal, and operational complexities while capturing emerging regional opportunities.